On September 9, 2024, two NATO member countries reported a significant breach of their airspace by Russian drones during nighttime attacks on Ukraine. This incident marks an alarming escalation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, heightening fears of the war extending into NATO territories. The breach, involving Romanian and Latvian airspace, underscores the fragility of European security and raises critical questions about NATO’s response, Russia’s intentions, and the broader geopolitical landscape.
The Breach of NATO Airspace
The most recent breach of NATO airspace occurred during Russia’s ongoing drone strikes on Ukraine. According to reports, a Russian drone strayed into Romanian airspace, while another drone crashed in eastern Latvia. Although neither event resulted in immediate casualties, the incident sets a dangerous precedent.
Romania, a NATO member since 2004, shares a long border with Ukraine. This proximity to the war zone has made Romania increasingly vulnerable to unintended consequences of the conflict. Latvian authorities reported similar concerns as Russian military activities approach the borders of the Baltic states.
These violations, while not the first, highlight the evolving nature of modern warfare, where drones and cyber tactics are blurring traditional borders and redefining the rules of engagement. Both Romania and Latvia condemned the breaches and have expressed concerns to NATO and the international community.
NATO’s Reaction and Collective Defense
NATO’s Article 5, which enshrines collective defense, stipulates that an armed attack on one member is considered an attack on all. While these drone incidents do not yet constitute a formal attack under NATO’s charter, they test the boundaries of NATO’s commitment to defense and deterrence. The question arises: How far can Russia push before NATO must respond?
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has already reiterated that any aggression towards a NATO member will trigger a unified response. However, these drone violations are more ambiguous, not easily categorized as direct military aggression. This ambiguity gives Russia room to maneuver, probing the limits of NATO’s patience while avoiding full-scale retaliation. In response, NATO countries have increased their surveillance and air defense systems along the borders of vulnerable member states like Romania and Latvia.
For now, NATO seems committed to diplomatic pressure rather than immediate military escalation. However, these incursions are likely to dominate the agenda of the upcoming NATO summit. The alliance will have to reassess its strategies in light of this new kind of provocation, balancing the need for deterrence without risking a broader confrontation with Russia.
The Broader Context of the Russia-Ukraine War
Russia’s drone strikes have been a key component of its military strategy in Ukraine, aimed at degrading Ukrainian infrastructure and morale. Over the past year, drones have become increasingly central to modern warfare, offering low-cost, high-impact alternatives to traditional air power.
Since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has faced significant setbacks on the ground, forcing the Kremlin to adapt its strategies. The use of drones—particularly Iranian-made Shahed drones—has allowed Russia to strike deep into Ukrainian territory, often targeting civilian infrastructure, including power grids and water supplies.
However, as these attacks have ramped up, the risk of spillover into neighboring countries has grown. Romania and Latvia are not the first to experience such incursions. Earlier in the conflict, Polish airspace was also violated by stray missiles and drones, prompting a swift diplomatic response. In each case, these incidents increase the risk of unintended escalation between NATO and Russia.
The use of drones by both sides in the Ukraine war exemplifies the changing nature of warfare in the 21st century. Drones offer deniability and flexibility, but they also increase the risk of miscalculations and accidents. With Russia increasingly relying on drone warfare, NATO must remain vigilant in monitoring its airspace and defending its borders.
Romania’s Strategic Position
Romania’s strategic location on NATO’s southeastern flank, coupled with its proximity to Ukraine and the Black Sea, has made it a key player in the region’s security dynamics. Romania has been a vocal supporter of Ukraine, providing military aid and humanitarian assistance since the onset of the conflict. Additionally, Romania’s defense budget has increased significantly since the war began, reflecting its concern about potential Russian aggression.
The Black Sea region, where Romania holds significant interests, has also become a focal point of the conflict. Russian naval forces have used the Black Sea as a launchpad for missile strikes against Ukraine, while NATO has stepped up its presence to deter further Russian expansion.
Romania’s vulnerability to spillover from the war was underscored in 2022 when Russian missiles came alarmingly close to Romanian airspace during attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. The September 2024 drone incursion is the latest in a series of incidents that highlight Romania’s precarious position as both a frontline state and a NATO member. Romania has called for increased NATO support, including more air defense systems and closer cooperation with allied forces stationed in the region.
Latvia and the Baltic States’ Concerns
Latvia, along with its Baltic neighbors Estonia and Lithuania, has long been wary of Russian aggression. The Baltic states, which share borders with Russia, have been on high alert since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the subsequent invasion of Ukraine.
Latvia’s response to the recent drone incident has been swift, with the government calling for stronger NATO presence in the region. Latvia has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine, providing both military and humanitarian assistance. The Baltic states have also been at the forefront of pushing for tougher sanctions on Russia within the European Union.
The Baltic region is particularly sensitive to Russian provocations due to its small size and geographic proximity to Russian territory. Any violation of Baltic airspace, even by a stray drone, is viewed as a potential threat to national security. Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania have all invested heavily in air defense systems in recent years, but they continue to rely on NATO’s collective defense for ultimate security.
The incursion into Latvian airspace is not the first time Russia has tested the region’s defenses. In 2023, Russian fighter jets repeatedly violated Baltic airspace, leading to increased NATO patrols and heightened tensions. The Baltic states have consistently warned that Russia’s actions in Ukraine are part of a broader strategy to destabilize Eastern Europe, and they view the drone incidents as part of this pattern.
The Role of Drones in Modern Warfare
The use of drones in the Russia-Ukraine conflict reflects a broader shift in the way wars are fought. Drones provide a relatively low-cost way to conduct surveillance, gather intelligence, and carry out precision strikes without risking the lives of pilots. They also offer plausible deniability, as drone strikes can be attributed to accidents or technical failures.
Russia’s reliance on drones, particularly Iranian-supplied models, has grown as its conventional military options have diminished. Ukrainian forces, too, have utilized drones to great effect, using them to target Russian supply lines and disrupt military operations behind enemy lines. This drone warfare has added a new layer of complexity to the conflict, with both sides seeking to outmaneuver the other in the skies above Ukraine.
For NATO, the increasing use of drones presents both challenges and opportunities. On one hand, drones make it harder to defend airspace, as they are smaller, faster, and harder to detect than traditional aircraft. On the other hand, NATO has been investing in advanced drone technology for its own defense, and the alliance is exploring ways to integrate drones more effectively into its military operations.
Conclusion: A Tense but Calculated Response
The incursion of Russian drones into Romanian and Latvian airspace on September 9, 2024, is a stark reminder of the fragility of European security in the face of Russia’s aggressive tactics. While the incidents have not yet escalated into direct conflict, they raise important questions about NATO’s preparedness and Russia’s long-term strategy in the region.
As drone warfare continues to evolve, NATO must adapt its defense strategies to counter these new threats. The breaches of Romanian and Latvian airspace are unlikely to be isolated events, and NATO will need to remain vigilant in defending its borders and deterring further Russian provocations. The international community will be watching closely to see how NATO navigates this delicate situation, balancing the need for deterrence with the risk of escalation.
